My Crystal Ball is Bigger Than Yours: 7 Predictions for 2010

Every year, I make a series of predictions that have served as a guide for my tech coverage in Black Enterprise magazine. At the end of 2008, I predicted the rise of the apps in 2009—and app stores galore emerged. According to a recent report by Millennial Media and Mobclix, Apple’s App store tops more than 100 million iPhone and iPod touch downloads per month. I also predicted the emergence of the apps developer from the shadows; and although I believe the kids in the basement have much more in store for us in 2010, they didn’t do so badly in 2009 either.  Now, typically, I keep predictions to myself. Not because I’m greedy, but because I’m shy. But I figured, hey, if Kanye can do it…

Games People Play. As Antonio Banderas said in 1995’s Desperado, “les play.” Gaming will absolutely heat up in 2009—on several fronts.

Passive gaming companies get active, combine forces with other multimedia companies  to make play more interesting, less repetitive, and less…passive.

Gaming makes real headway  into the .edu space, particularly in higher education. Games as teaching aids have been the province of elementary and high schools for quite a while now. Tabula Digita, headed by Ntiedo Etuk has done well with its DimensionM math games. As a college writing instructor, I see game narratives maturing and think games in class are a viable way of teaching core writing principles to my first-year students. Who’s up for some Xbox in the spring?

Serious games get, well, you get the idea…serious. Games that are used in business, government, and the medical fields, for example, as training tools will see a boost in interest and sales. I’m tempted to include language learning in this area, too.

Microsoft’s Project Natal.  (let the bating of the breath begin)

Virtual spaces get real. Virtual reality companies like Linden Labs (Second Life) make contact with real-world revenues. Really. They’ll have some competition, though. Look for innovation from startups like Vzillion (www.vzillion) to really change the game.

Moms rule. “The hand that rocks the cradle is the hand that rules the world.” I heard that someplace once (and not just in the scary Rebecca DeMornay movie). A gaggle of gadgets, gizmos and resources catering to mompreneurs and savvy moms will emerge. Walmart has begun the early march with its Elevenmoms (really 12 moms) blogs.

eReaders see the handwriting on the w… Oh, heck.  Although there’s been much hype over devices like the Kindle, Sony eReader, the Nook, et al, for those of us who have been in tech long enough to remember the first iteration of readers, we’re still waiting for true innovation on that platform—something that will really make us sit up and take notice. So far, this crop of eReaders just hasn’t.  If Apple decides to play in this arena, the game could get serious. Why? One of the sticking points to widespread adoption is the issue of digital rights; that is, for content creators, the issue is how are you using my intellectual property and how do you plan to pay me for it? How much? Apple’s iTunes as a revenue model is proven. This could potentially be, dare I say, a Kindle Killer? (By the way the phrase “x killer” will also need to go away.

The “i”. Companies, with the exception of Apple, will stop putting “i” in front of every product they sell—iPhone, iChair, iCrappy Device.

Where U @? Location-based tech makes its way into interesting places. Think Enemy of the State meets No Reservations. We’ve seen the emergence of sites like Foursquare, Buzz’d, and even TripIt take off this year, and 2010 will see even more integration with other social networking tools and services. Question for travel-based sites and services, however, is this: how will they fare in an industry that’s pretty much in chaos? How long will consumers acquiesce to petty price-gouging and the growing inconveniences of flying to make use of some really great tools?

Twitter. Like the identity of the Dark Lord of the Sith, the true nature of Twitter will be revealed.  Ooooo (okay, so that was written after a couple glasses of wine). Seriously, though, the babble over social media tools like Twitter will quickly subside in 2010 as companies and entrepreneurs begin to ask serious questions: how does this help my business? Do the costs of using some of these tools outweigh the benefits? Do I need this? How does it work with my (fill in the blank)? Is Twitter just a jumpoff for other, more useful tools? Or does something wicked-er this way come?

What do you think 2010 holds in store for us? Let me know.

Tags: Apple, Microsoft, Second Life, Twitter

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 18th, 2009 at 11:17 pm and is filed under blog. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.